ABSTRACT

The Influence of Minimum Wage, Farmers' Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Number of Poor People through Regional Gross Domestic Product in South Kalimantan Province

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Provincial Minimum Wage, Farmers' Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Number of Poor People through the Regional Gross Domestic Product in South Kalimantan Province. This research is a descriptive associative quantitative study utilizing secondary timeseries data obtained from the BPS of South Kalimantan Province for the 2010–2024 period. The data analysis technique used is Path Analysis. The results of the study show that, both partially and simultaneously, Minimum Wage and Farmers' Exchange Rate have a positive and significant effect on GRDP, whereas Inflation has a negative and significant effect on GRDP. Partially and simultaneously, Minimum Wage, Farmers' Exchange Rate, and GRDP have a negative and significant effect on the Number of Poor People, while Inflation has a positive and significant effect. Furthermore, the Sobel test and path analysis results demonstrate that GRDP significantly mediates the influence of Minimum Wage, Farmers' Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Number of Poor People in South Kalimantan Province.

Keywords: Provincial Minimum Wage, Farmers' Exchange Rate, Inflation, Gross Regional Domestic Product, Poverty.

ABSTRAKSI

Pengaruh Upah Minimum, Nilai Tukar Petani, dan Inflasi Terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Melalui Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Upah Minimum, Nilai Tukar Petani, dan Inflasi terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin melalui PDRB di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif deskriptif asosiatif menggunakan data sekunder data time series dari BPS Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan periode 2010–2024. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah Path Analysis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial dan simultan Upah Minimum dan Nilai Tukar Petani berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB, sedangkan Inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap PDRB. Upah Minimum, Nilai Tukar Petani, dan PDRB secara parsial dan simultan memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin, sedangkan Inflasi memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan. Hasil uji Sobel dan analisis jalur, PDRB terbukti secara signifikan memediasi pengaruh Upah Minimum, Nilai Tukar Petani dan Inflasi terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan.

Kata Kunci: Upah Minimum Provinsi, Nilai Tukar Petani, Inflasi, Produk Domestik Regional Bruto, Kemiskinan.